No Way Out

There's been increasing chatter about real potential for the Euro to fall apart. Greece is effectively getting bailed out by Germany -- indenturing Greek citizens to fiscal austerity in order to repay Teutonic bondsmen.

Meanwhile, Germans are rightly asking why their national savings -- generated by hard work and modest pensions -- should be used to fund Aegean excesses like 14-month pay, retirement at 54, and dishonest accounting. Who leaves the Euro first is anyone's guess.

But my question is how anyone leaves the Euro.

The pragmatics are mind boggling. Assume the Euro dissolves. What do you do with the newly obsolete notes in your pocket?

Quick answer is take them to the bank and exchange them. Okay. But for which currency?

If the Euro falls, you're left with drachmas and d-marks and francs and guilders and pesos and lira, oh my! The Greek drachma would most assuredly go down faster than a Thebian soldier boy. Meanwhile, the Deutschmark would instantly ascend to Ayrian superiority.

Keep firmly in mind the exchange rates are frozen "irrevocably" by decree of the Maastricht Treaty:

* 1 Euro = 1.95583 D-marks

* 1 Euro = 340.750 drachma

It's a no-brainer. If I've a pile of Euro notes, I'd exchange them for the currency on the rise.

So would you, as would Greeks and Italians and Spaniards. More importantly, so would people like George Soros -- bankers, currency speculators, arbitragers, scam artists (all pretty much the same thing anymore). The run on the German Treasury would be epic.

And untenable.

Far more Euros would be exchanged for D-marks than had been contributed to the common currency.

My guess is that the German government has already asked this question to itself and is figuring out a way to freeze foreign exchanges. It'll be easy to trade money already in German-owned bank accounts. But the money in circulation will be a problem. German citizens and legal residents will probably get first priority. The bureaucracy involved in proving the money is your own will be cumbersome:

* How much are you exchanging?

* How did you get so much?

* Have you received any Euros from outside Germany?

* When?

* How much?

* From whom?

* For what purpose?

* Will the exchanged money be leaving Germany any time soon?

* If so, when?

* How much?

* To whom?

* For what purpose?

Multiply this by 16 factorial (permutations of differing exchange rates, currency prospects, ease of tranferring, loopholes in national rules, etc) and you've got a BIG FREAKING PROBLEM.

Mark my words: Honest people will get screwed. Criminals will profit. Chaos all around.

Enjoy your weekend!