No Way Out

There's been increasing chatter about real potential for the Euro to fall apart. Greece is effectively getting bailed out by Germany -- indenturing Greek citizens to fiscal austerity in order to repay Teutonic bondsmen.

Meanwhile, Germans are rightly asking why their national savings -- generated by hard work and modest pensions -- should be used to fund Aegean excesses like 14-month pay, retirement at 54, and dishonest accounting. Who leaves the Euro first is anyone's guess.

But my question is how anyone leaves the Euro.

The pragmatics are mind boggling. Assume the Euro dissolves. What do you do with the newly obsolete notes in your pocket?

Quick answer is take them to the bank and exchange them. Okay. But for which currency?

If the Euro falls, you're left with drachmas and d-marks and francs and guilders and pesos and lira, oh my! The Greek drachma would most assuredly go down faster than a Thebian soldier boy. Meanwhile, the Deutschmark would instantly ascend to Ayrian superiority.

Keep firmly in mind the exchange rates are frozen "irrevocably" by decree of the Maastricht Treaty:

* 1 Euro = 1.95583 D-marks

* 1 Euro = 340.750 drachma

It's a no-brainer. If I've a pile of Euro notes, I'd exchange them for the currency on the rise.

So would you, as would Greeks and Italians and Spaniards. More importantly, so would people like George Soros -- bankers, currency speculators, arbitragers, scam artists (all pretty much the same thing anymore). The run on the German Treasury would be epic.

And untenable.

Far more Euros would be exchanged for D-marks than had been contributed to the common currency.

My guess is that the German government has already asked this question to itself and is figuring out a way to freeze foreign exchanges. It'll be easy to trade money already in German-owned bank accounts. But the money in circulation will be a problem. German citizens and legal residents will probably get first priority. The bureaucracy involved in proving the money is your own will be cumbersome:

* How much are you exchanging?

* How did you get so much?

* Have you received any Euros from outside Germany?

* When?

* How much?

* From whom?

* For what purpose?

* Will the exchanged money be leaving Germany any time soon?

* If so, when?

* How much?

* To whom?

* For what purpose?

Multiply this by 16 factorial (permutations of differing exchange rates, currency prospects, ease of tranferring, loopholes in national rules, etc) and you've got a BIG FREAKING PROBLEM.

Mark my words: Honest people will get screwed. Criminals will profit. Chaos all around.

Enjoy your weekend!

The Plan

Friday. Heathrow to Atlanta. Middle seat. Naturally.

Uh, Never Mind...

...Sorry for the inconvenience, expense, and upheaval. We weren't wrong, mind you. But everything is just fine.

UK authorities had closed airspace because it had been absolutely, positively determined that no amount of volcanic ash is safe to fly through. Concentrations above most of England peaked at 200 milligrams / cubic meter. They are currently well under 100.

British Airways and other airlines that sent up test flights (without passengers, just pilots & engineers) found no damage to any of their planes. The UK government has now released standards that say it is permissible to fly through ash concentrations up to 2,000 milligrams / cubic meter.

So everything was alright all along.

-----------

Seen last night on BBC (interview with UK Transport Minister):

TV presenter: Why were standards set at absolute zero up until this morning?

Minister: Because that's what the deeply studied mathematical models told us.

TV presenter: But now there is real-world, empirical evidence that prove some ash is okay?

Minister: That's what the airlines and aircraft manufacturers have suggested.

TV presenter: But you now have a standard more than zero and far greater than what's currently in the air.

Minister: Yes, well we've studied the results of their test flights and agree it can be done.

TV presenter: You say the models had been deeply studied for years...

Minister: Yes, deeply studied. We had considered the scenario for many years.

TV presenter: ...then why had no one thought to run a jet engine for several thousand hours on the ground while blowing volcanic ash at it.

Minister: Well that would be a very expensive test.

TV presenter: Certainly not the 1.1 billion pounds lost to the economy in the last week?

Minister: ....crickets chirping....

Gotcha journalism isn't very objectionable when the interviewee can't even figure out he's been gotten. Nor especially when the interviewer doesn't really intend to get anyone. Just asks the next logical question.

Dr. B

Smell those desert flowers.

Scenarios

Okay, here's the situation: Tuesday flights were predictably cancelled yesterday from Heathrow. Delta re-booked me for Saturday. The agent initially said he had space for Friday but when he tried to confirm, all he uttered was, "Oh dear." Friday vanished in the blink of an eye.

So it's Saturday. By way of Amsterdam. Amsterdam, Holland. Now, I know what you're thinking. And if you're not thinking what I think you should be thinking, you will soon. But first, some additional background.

The UK air traffic control authority (NATS) has been by far the most cautious of anyone in this volcanic eruption. Eurocontrol - the Continent's analogue to the FAA - has been easing restrictions both due to dissipation of the ash cloud AND petitions from the airlines. There is much criticism that both agencies have overreacted to the situation.

British Airways, Lufthansa, Air France, and KLM have all put up test flights -- at multiple altitudes for prolonged periods directly through ash fields -- and have reported no danger and no damage to equipment. BA & KLM even sent their CEO's along for the ride in their very first runs.

Moreover, it has been noted that world standards are much looser than Europe, though not considered less safe. For instance, if this had occurred in the USA there would have likely been initial delays/cancellations/closures. But, operations would have resumed within hours to a couple days at most.

So it brings me to considering the potential scenarios. Saturday is a long way off in this scheme of things. Much could change in the meantime. The situation is very fluid. We are currently seeing Europe open and spot service in the northern UK. The South -- including Heathrow -- remains closed officially until at least 1900 tonight. And now NATS is backtracking on some of these re-openings.

Let it be known: I am totally down with flying home safely. And I am not entirely comfortable with notion of loading into a plane over the North Atlantic with nothing but abrasive particulate above and icebergs below. Moreover, KLM is not a paragon of patience in the face of delays due to natural phenomenon. (Note: I would be flying on KLM, Delta's air partner).

But, this could last indefinitely. See how the ash cloud in the maps below is ever present, even spreading. When the Snapshot was taken, there were still no transatlantic flights operating north of Spain (which, by the way is absolutely jammed with travelers like myself seeing it as the only operating alternative).

Even under the most ideal flight plan you have to fly through an ash zone before assuming a southern route. Assuming they don't just say "We're fine. The northern corridor is faster, cheaper to operate in the thinner air & shorter polar route." I am completely unsold on the virtue of companies losing millions of dollars per day.

Monday - Snapshot @ 13:00 GMT

So now, the scenarios. All include the assumption the volcano keeps erupting and winds don't change significantly so as to disperse the cloud.

a) Stay and wait. By Saturday, UK airspace may be deemed safe enough to allow take offs.

Advantages: No additional chaos (packing/unpacking/

hauling baggage/travel), good facilities & local transportation,

London rocks.

Disadvantages: UK airspace may not re-open. Still have

connection in Amsterdam (don't like all those up & downs).

Boredom. Frustration. Festering.

b) Train to Amsterdam. Negotiate with Delta to drop the Heathrow-to-Amsterdam segment and just get me home on Saturday with the rest of the itinerary. Stay in hotel at or near Schiphol Airport (AMS).

Advantages: Off the Island. Better (though not guaranteed)

probability of flying from the Continent. LEGAL DOPE!!!!

Disadvantages: Still no guarantee flights will operate.

Unsure if Delta is willing to work with me (but you gotta believe

I'd be helping 'em, right?). Still have ash zone to fly through.

No current hotel availability (though that's gotta change as

flights resume). Upheaval. Expense.

c) Elsewhere on Continent. Negotiate with Delta to find an alternate airport in Spain, Italy, Southern France, Greece, etc. Hell, I'm considering Tangier and Cairo at this point!

Advantages: No longer locked on an island. Far more airports

to choose from. The ability to view activity as action.

Disadvantages: Major uncertainty about hotel, train, and

rental car availability. All airports are backlogged - might

turn out to be an out-of-the-frying-pan-into-the-fire situation.

MAJOR EXPENSE.

At this point, I'm leaning toward option B, but won't likely be able to mobilize until tomorrow or Thursday at the earliest. Will not go without a confirmation from the airline that this is kosher and a confirmed hotel room reachable to the AMS airport.

Then, and only then, will I relax with a fat spliff. And a Stella. And this ashtray...

We're Gonna Have a Ball Tonight...

...Down at the Globe

Pub on the Thames called The Anchor

Somebody's boat - I forgot who

Southwark Cathedral (aka St. Mary's located under London Bridge)

St. Paul's Cathedral from across the Thames

Happiness is a Warm Gun...

...Bang bang, shoot shoot...

Warhol at the Tate (that's floor to ceiling - not 4 ft tall pylons on floor)

Tate (exterior from Thames)

Spring Street outside Paddington Station

Paddington Station

Paddington Station platform